Australia and other countries in the Asia-Pacific Region have had a very different experience of COVID-19 over the past two years from the ‘global north’. Border measures and strong public health controls focused on zero community transmission have resulted in effective elimination in many settings, interspersed with periods of low disease activity. Estimation of COVID-19 risks and the likely impact of public health interventions including vaccination in this context required development of innovative statistical and modelling methods for scenario preparedness and situational assessment. Members of a nationally distributed team of modellers who have supported COVID-19 policy decision making in Australia and the Western Pacific Region will present some of these approaches.
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