Abstract
I will frame this talk in the context of what I refer to as the First and Second Fundamental Theorem of Quantitative Risk Management (1&2-FTQRM). An alternative subtitle for 1-FTQRM would be “Mathematical Utopia”, for 2-FTQRM it would be “Wall Street Reality”. I will mainly concentrate on uncertainty at the level of interdependence between risk factors and be interested in the derivation of extremal (inf-sup) bounds for risk measures, like Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall, of portfolios as functions of these factors.
A workshop to commemorate the centenary of publication of Frank Knight’s “Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit” and John Maynard Keynes’ “A Treatise on Probability”
This workshop is organised by the University of Oxford and supported by The Alan Turing Institute. For further details and regular updates, please visit the official event website
About the event
The year 2021 marks the centenary of two monumental publications in economics and probability theory, namely Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit by Frank Hyneman Knight and A Treatise on Probability by John Maynard Keynes.
In Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit, Knight put forward the vital difference between risk, where empirical evaluation of unknown outcomes can still be applicable, and uncertainty, where no quantified measurement is valid but subjective estimate. In A Treatise on Probability, Keynes argued that the concept of probability should be about the logical implication from premises to hypotheses, in contrast to the classical quantified perspective of probability.
The fundamental uncertainty proposed in both works has then deeply influenced the development of economic and probability theory in the past century and it still resonates with our lives today, considering the ups and downs that the world economy is experiencing.
This workshop is a tribute to their invaluable legacy.
Speakers:
Professor Dr Francesca Biagini, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich
Professor Sara Biagini, LUISS Guido Carli
Professor Simon Blackburn, Trinity College, Cambridge
Professor Dr Paul Embrechts, ETH Zurich
Professor Itzhak Gilboa, HEC Paris
Professor Lars Hansen, University of Chicago
Professor Fabio Maccheroni, Bocconi University
Professor Massimo Marinacci, Bocconi University
Professor Marcel Nutz, Columbia University
Professor Shige Peng, Shandong University
Professor Dr Frank Riedel, Bielefeld University
Professor Ross Emmett, Arizona State University
Organizers:
Sam Cohen, Lars Hansen, Tomasz R. Bielecki, Igor Cialenco, Mike Tehranchi and Haoyang Cao
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